IATA Expects Airline Profits to Rise Despite Headwinds

Despite the challenges facing the global economy, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced at its Annual General Meeting in New Delhi earlier this month that the airline industry is expected to experience improved profitability in 2025, surpassing 2024.

Airlines are projected to make a combined $36 billion profit on record revenues of $979 billion. That is up from $32.4 billion earned in 2024 but revised downward from the projections of $36.5 billion made in December 2024. The net profit margin is expected to be 3.7 percent, up from the 3.4 percent earned in 2024.

North America is expected to generate the highest profits among all regions, according to IATA, even with a projected slowdown in the U.S. economy.

During a media briefing at the conference, Peter Cerdá, Regional Vice President for The Americas, highlighted the importance of airports in maintaining the health of the aviation industry.

“Adequate airport infrastructure is critical to ensure that the aviation sector can continue to thrive,” he said.

Globally, the total number of travelers is projected to reach a record high of 4.99 billion, which represents a 4 percent increase from 2024.

“The first half of 2025 has brought significant uncertainties to global markets. Nonetheless, by many measures, including net profits, it will still be a better year for airlines than 2024, although slightly below our previous projections,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “The biggest positive driver is the price of jet fuel, which has fallen 13 percent compared with 2024 and 1 percent below previous estimates.”

Jet fuel prices are projected to average $86 per barrel in 2025, a decrease from the $99 average in 2024. This change would result in a savings of $25 billion from the $261 billion spent on jet fuel in 2024.

A poll conducted by IATA in April concluded that passenger traffic is expected to increase in 2025 “even if previous demand projections have been dented by trade tensions and falls in consumer confidence,” Walsh said.

The poll surveyed 6,500 travelers across 15 countries and found that 40 percent of respondents anticipate traveling more in the next 12 months than they did in the previous year. Additionally, 53 percent expect to travel as much as they did, while 6 percent expect to travel less. An overwhelming 90 percent of respondents agreed that air connectivity is vital for the economy, and 89 percent believe that air travel has a positive impact on society.

“Aviation is not a luxury; it’s a public service,” Cerdá told the media.

He noted that in North America, aviation supports 8.4 million jobs and contributes $1.4 trillion to the Gross Domestic Product.

“These numbers tell the powerful story that aviation is essential not only for travel but for trade, tourism, employment, economic development and the social well-being of our citizens,” he said.

IATA’s next Annual General Meeting is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro in June 2026, hosted by LATAM Airlines Group. This meeting serves as the organization’s primary gathering, where airlines and other industry stakeholders come together to discuss key industry issues.

IATA has stated that one of the significant issues currently facing the industry is the backlog in the delivery of new aircraft.

“The delivery backlog of 17,000 implies a 14-year wait between ordering and delivery,” Walsh said. “Manufacturers continue to let their airline customers down. Every airline is frustrated that these problems have persisted so long. And indications that it could take until the end of the decade to fix them are off-the-chart unacceptable.”