Aviation in 2023: Great Promise, But Turbulence Ahead

As 2023 dawns, the commercial aviation industry finds itself at a critical inflection point: ready to take off after several years of disruption and uncertainty, but still grappling with fundamental issues that threaten its long-term growth and success.

After a year of overall improvement, 2022 did not exit quietly. Massive winter storms wreaked havoc for the holiday travel season, exposing the yin and yang of the industry. Widespread and pent-up demand, particularly among leisure travelers, bumped up against staff shortages and technology weaknesses that limited the airlines’ ability to pivot quickly in the crisis.

And airport modernization and infrastructure improvements are booming even as some worry that continued airline consolidation could limit competitiveness and bring higher prices.

One thing is certain: the industry has never experienced such a turbulent period. After COVID-19 brought the world to a standstill in March 2020, airports and airlines found themselves scrambling for simple survival, as passenger traffic essentially vanished, particularly on international routes.

In 2021, airlines embraced the unpredictable as infection rates ebbed and flowed, changing their schedules with unprecedented speed and adding routes and destinations that may be described as atypical. In 2022, the widespread adoption of vaccines and nearly full resumption of international travel gave the industry its “new normal,” and plans were made with more confidence as passengers surged back into airports.

Which brings us back to the future. What’s ahead for carriers and airports in 2023? Below, Blue Sky News examines what we think will be five of the most important stories to watch this year, with each having a potentially major impact on the industry. Stay with us throughout the year for more on what is shaping up to be a dynamic year for aviation.

Pilot shortages

One of the crucial issues facing the aviation industry in the year ahead continues to be staffing, particularly shortages of pilots.

It’s an issue years in the making that was exacerbated by a wave of retirements during the pandemic, and it has the industry scrambling for solutions. In the short-term, airlines have been forced to trim flights as air travel continues to return to nearly pre-pandemic levels.

Several solutions are in play. A bill introduced in Congress last year would raise the federally mandated retirement age for airline pilots to 67, from 65, to allow for more time in the cockpit. A regional airline proposed reducing flight-hour requirements before pilots can fly for a U.S. carrier. Other airlines are rethinking training programs to lower the barrier to entry.

And in early 2022, Delta Air Lines joined other big carriers in dropping a four-year degree from its pilot hiring requirements, CNBC.com reported last year.

“The pilot shortage for the industry is real, and most airlines are simply not going to be able to realize their capacity plans because there simply aren’t enough pilots, at least not for the next five-plus years,” United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said on a quarterly earnings call in April.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Data, about 14,500 job openings for airline and commercial pilots are expected through 2030. Jobs for commercial pilots are expected to grow 11 percent in that time, faster than the national average.

While a career as a pilot can be lucrative, training can be financially daunting for many aspiring pilots. The average cost to earn a commercial pilot’s license in the U.S. is near $100,000. Becoming a certified Airline Transport Pilot to fly for airlines requires at least 1,500 hours of flying time, which is significantly more than in other parts of the world, including Europe.

While improving, experts predict the pilot shortage will continue through the decade.